Tim Nisslbeck

PhD candidate · BIASlab, TU Eindhoven

I am a PhD candidate at BIASlab, TU Eindhoven, supervised by Wouter Kouw. My research focuses on sample-efficient robot learning — designing agents that learn to control physical robots from far fewer interactions than current reinforcement learning methods require. I build probabilistic world models that maintain a full Bayesian posterior over their parameters and update exactly at each timestep, and I develop model-based agents that use expected free energy (EFE) as their planning objective — a variational quantity from the active inference framework that replaces the hand-designed reward function and jointly drives goal attainment and uncertainty reduction, similar in spirit to information-seeking, curiosity-driven model-based RL. I validate these methods on real robotic hardware.

Before my PhD I worked as a researcher at Fraunhofer IIS, where I applied deep reinforcement learning to autonomous driving, led an interpretable RL project, and built large-scale HPC training pipelines. For my MSc thesis I collected real RC car motion-capture data, trained an LSTM-based world model on it, and used that learned simulator to train a DDQN agent entirely in simulation before deploying the policy on the physical car.

I am broadly interested in the following areas:

Active inference
A model-based framework for perception and action grounded in the Free Energy Principle. Agents simultaneously learn a world model via variational Bayesian inference and select actions by minimising a single variational objective — expected free energy — without a hand-designed reward function.
Expected free energy (EFE)
The planning objective used in active inference. It decomposes into a goal-seeking exploitation term (cross-entropy to a goal prior) and information-seeking exploration terms (a mutual-information term between predicted outputs and model parameters, plus an expected-ambiguity term). Analogous in spirit to information-seeking / curiosity-driven objectives in model-based RL.
MARX (our work)
Multivariate AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs — a probabilistic autoregressive dynamics model we introduced, with a matrix normal-Wishart conjugate prior that admits exact recursive Bayesian updates and a closed-form Student-t posterior predictive distribution.
MARX-EFE / CARX-EFE (our work)
Our agents that pair a MARX world model with EFE-based action selection. CARX-EFE couples scalar autoregressive models for multi-joint systems; MARX-EFE extends this to the full multivariate setting with multi-step receding-horizon planning.
Factor graph for online Bayesian MARX identification
Probabilistic world models
I design dynamics models that maintain a full Bayesian posterior over their parameters and update exactly at each timestep, giving calibrated uncertainty estimates without gradient descent or replay buffers. This uncertainty is what makes the downstream agent able to reason about what it does and does not yet know.
Online Bayesian system identification · conjugate autoregressive models · factor graphs · uncertainty quantification
MARX (Entropy 2025)
Decision-making under uncertainty
I develop model-based agents whose planning objective decomposes into a goal-seeking exploitation term and an information-seeking exploration term, with no hand-designed reward function. The balance between the two emerges automatically as the agent's model uncertainty evolves over time.
Active inference · expected free energy · model-based RL with information-seeking objectives · exploration vs exploitation
MARX-EFE (preprint), MP-MARX-EFE (IWAI 2025), CARX-EFE (IWAI 2024)
Real-robot learning
A key motivation for probabilistic world models is making sample-efficient learning tractable on physical hardware. I deploy learned controllers directly on real robots — without simulation pre-training — to validate that sample efficiency gains hold outside the simulator.
Sample efficiency on physical hardware · sim-to-real transfer · quadruped locomotion · learning from scratch without demonstrations
Bittle quadruped, RC car MSc thesis

Publications and preprints

Papers sorted by recency. Representative papers are highlighted. Click a thumbnail to enlarge; click "more" for a short summary.

Autoregressive Active Inference for Sample-Efficient Quadruped Control
Tim Nisslbeck, Wouter M Kouw
In preparation, 2026
We deploy a model-based robot learning agent directly on a real Petoi Bittle quadruped for obstacle avoidance — using only onboard IMU and infrared sensors, no simulation, no pre-training. The agent maintains a MARX world model that updates via exact Bayesian inference at each timestep and selects actions by minimising expected free energy (EFE), a variational objective that automatically balances goal attainment with active exploration. We compare against the model-based RL baseline PILCO and evaluate sample efficiency.
project page coming soon
Effects of Priors on Epistemic Uncertainty in Autoregressive Active Inference
Esther G van Pelt, Tim Nisslbeck, Harm J W Belt, Ruud J G van Sloun, Wouter M Kouw
Workshop on Epistemic Intelligence in Machine Learning at EurIPS , 2025
We study how prior hyperparameter choices shape the EFE objective of the MARX-EFE agent. Visualising the objective decomposed into its goal-seeking and information-seeking components over control space shows that, for example, increasing the prior scale matrix Ω shifts the balance within the information-seeking term from the mutual-information component towards the expected-ambiguity component, while the goal-seeking prior parameters S* and m* steer the direction and sharpness of goal attainment. The free energy-minimising agent reaches the goal prior sooner than a standard model-predictive controller.
pdf / bibtex
Message Passing for Autoregressive Active Inference Agents
Wouter M Kouw, Tim Nisslbeck, Wouter LN Nuijten
International Workshop on Active Inference (IWAI) , 2025
Reformulates the MARX-EFE agent — Bayesian world model updates and multi-step EFE planning — as message passing on a Forney-style factor graph, enabling a modular, distributed implementation. This connects active inference to the broader probabilistic graphical model literature and is validated on a robot navigation task.
pdf / code / bibtex
Exploration versus Exploitation in Autoregressive Free Energy Minimising Agents
Tim Nisslbeck, Wouter M Kouw
Preprint, 2025
Full derivation of the MARX-EFE agent from first principles. The MARX world model admits exact recursive Bayesian updates and a closed-form posterior predictive distribution. The planning objective — expected free energy — decomposes analytically into a goal-seeking exploitation term and information-seeking exploration terms, with no reward engineering required.
preprint coming soon
Factor Graph-Based Online Bayesian Identification and Component Evaluation for Multivariate Autoregressive Exogenous Input Models
Tim Nisslbeck, Wouter M Kouw
Entropy (MDPI) , 2025
Introduces the MARX estimator — a probabilistic autoregressive dynamics model with exact online Bayesian updates — cast as message passing on a factor graph. A novel decomposition of model surprisal into accuracy and complexity terms enables interpretable model selection. Validated on simulated autoregressive systems and a double mass-spring-damper.
pdf / code / bibtex
Online Bayesian System Identification in Multivariate Autoregressive Models via Message Passing
Tim Nisslbeck, Wouter M Kouw
European Control Conference (ECC) , 2025
Proposes a recursive Bayesian estimation procedure for multivariate autoregressive dynamics models with exogenous inputs, formulated as message passing on a factor graph. Produces full posterior distributions over model parameters and noise precision, with competitive performance on a double mass-spring-damper benchmark.
pdf / code / bibtex
Insights into Sample-Efficient Learning of Quadrupedal Robot Locomotion
Tim Nisslbeck, Wouter M Kouw
Technical report, 2024
Reviews and empirically validates sample-efficiency principles for RL-based quadruped locomotion — reward, action, and observation space design; off-policy learning; model-based methods; and temporal update strategies — using a simulated Petoi Bittle platform under controlled conditions.
PDF coming soon
Coupled Autoregressive Active Inference Agents for Control of Multi-Joint Dynamical Systems
Tim Nisslbeck, Wouter M Kouw
International Workshop on Active Inference (IWAI) , 2024
Introduces CARX-EFE (Coupled AutoRegressive models with eXogenous inputs, controlled via Expected Free Energy) — multiple scalar active inference agents that share observation histories to jointly control multi-input multi-output dynamical systems. On a double mass-spring-damper, coupled agents achieve lower prediction error and better goal alignment than independent per-joint agents.
pdf / code / bibtex
High-Speed Collision Avoidance using Deep Reinforcement Learning and Domain Randomization for Autonomous Vehicles
Georgios D Kontes, Daniel D Scherer, Tim Nisslbeck, Janina Fischer, Christopher Mutschler
IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference (ITSC) , 2020
A co-authored study from my time at Fraunhofer IIS. A TD3 (Twin Delayed DDPG) deep RL agent is trained in a high-fidelity simulator to take over steering, acceleration, and braking and avoid a stationary obstacle in a high-speed collision-avoidance scenario. Domain randomisation over vehicle speed and obstacle distance is used to support sim-to-real transfer: the randomised policy generalises substantially better across unseen speed and distance configurations than policies trained on a single fixed version of the task.
pdf / bibtex
Learning a World Model for Sim-to-Real Deep Reinforcement Learning (MSc Thesis)
Tim Nisslbeck
MSc thesis · Fraunhofer IIS, 2018
Real RC car motion-capture data was collected using an ART motion capture system and fused with onboard IMU readings. An LSTM-based world model was trained on this data to approximate the vehicle's state-transition dynamics. A DDQN agent was then trained entirely inside the learned simulator — without any interaction with the physical car — and the resulting policy was successfully deployed on the real Tamiya TT-02 RC car, performing slalom, figure-eight, and lane-following manoeuvres.
poster  project page coming soon

Open Source

Simulation environments, tools, and reproducible implementations.

PyBullet Simulation Environment for Petoi Bittle
Python, PyBullet
A complete PyBullet physics simulation of the Petoi Bittle quadruped, built from scratch to support active inference and RL experiments. Includes URDF model, IMU and infrared sensor emulation, and a Gym-compatible step interface.
code coming soon

Outside Research

Birding, Photography & Field Recording
I regularly go birding in the Netherlands and Germany and contribute observations to eBird and photographs and audio recordings to the Macaulay Library.
gallery / Macaulay Library
Chess
I enjoy playing chess regularly, mostly Blitz (3+0).

Contact

Happy to hear about research collaborations, job opportunities, or questions about my work. My email is hello [at] timnisslbeck .com